The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its latest economic outlook report on the 23rd, raising its global economic growth forecast for 2026 from an estimated 2.8% in June to 2.9%.
The report suggests that despite the impact of the Middle East situation on the global economy and the slowdown in global economic growth in the first half of this year, many countries' economies still demonstrate resilience. The relatively sufficient oil inventory, new energy supply outside the Gulf region, and support measures taken by some countries have to some extent alleviated the impact of the Middle East situation on the global economy. At the same time, the field of artificial intelligence continues to be active, driving investment, production, and trade growth.   
But the report also points out that the global economic outlook still largely depends on the development of the Middle East conflict. Recently, as oil production and exports in the Gulf region continue to be affected, energy prices have risen again. Driven by factors such as extreme weather affecting supply, prices of some agricultural products have also significantly increased in recent months. In addition, the continuous adjustment of trade policies such as tariffs and export restrictions has exacerbated policy uncertainty and supply disruptions.
The report predicts that short-term inflationary pressures will increase due to the rise in commodity prices, but will gradually ease in 2027. The overall inflation rate of G20 economies is expected to decrease from 4.1% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027, while the core inflation rate of developed economies is expected to decrease from 2.7% to 2.5% during the same period.
In the face of rising energy prices and inflation above target levels, the OECD recommends that central banks ensure stable inflation expectations and adjust monetary policies in a timely manner based on price pressures and changes in economic growth prospects. Governments around the world should also implement precise measures to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices and retain incentives to reduce energy use and promote diversified energy supply.
In the medium to long term, the OECD calls for promoting structural reforms, further diversifying energy supply, improving energy efficiency, and enhancing the economy's resilience to supply shocks.