The real estate related data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 17th showed that in July, the overall sales prices of commodity residential properties in first tier cities increased month on month, while the year-on-year decline in second and third tier cities continued to narrow overall. The decline in sales revenue has narrowed synchronously, and the inventory of commercial housing has fallen slightly. The overall market shows strong resilience.
In July, the sales prices of newly-built residential properties in first tier cities remained unchanged from a 0.1% increase last month, with Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rising by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.2% respectively, and Beijing falling by 0.3%. The sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first tier cities increased by 0.2% month on month, with Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing increases ranging from 0.2% to 0.4%, while Beijing remained unchanged. Overall, there are 23 cities where the sales prices of newly-built residential properties have increased or remained stable compared to the previous month, an increase of 2 cities from the previous month.
On a year-on-year basis, in July, the sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in first tier cities decreased by 1.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 2.3%, 2.2%, and 2.9% respectively, while Shanghai rose by 3.0%. The sales price of newly-built residential properties in second tier cities decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 0.3 percentage points. The sales price of newly-built residential properties in third tier cities decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, the same decrease as last month.
In terms of second-hand housing, in July, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first tier cities decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 4.5%, 2.0%, 4.7%, and 3.6% respectively. The sales prices of second-hand residential properties in second - and third tier cities decreased by 5.1% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively.
According to Zhang Bo, the director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, based on the data from July, the market has entered the second half of bottoming out, showing a structural trend of narrowing year-on-year decline and highly differentiated month on month. The overall price fluctuations in 70 cities have narrowed within the range of -0.4% to+0.2%. The prices of new houses in first tier cities have remained stable, while the prices of second-hand houses have slightly turned positive compared to the previous period. This is a reflection of the positive market factors gradually transmitted to the price side.
Cao Jingjing, General Manager of the Index Research Department at the China Index Research Institute, stated that the real estate market entered the traditional off-season in August, and overall market transactions were relatively flat in the first half of the month. However, core cities still maintained a certain level of activity under the influence of high-quality projects entering the market and policy incentives. In terms of new houses, the sales area of new houses in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all achieved year-on-year growth in the first half of the year; The transaction volume of second-hand houses has been steadily increasing, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in Shanghai in the first half of the year. After the implementation of the new policies in Beijing, the increase in viewership has also been significant. At the same time, the bidding heat for core residential land in Beijing and Shanghai is relatively high, but overall, enterprises are still cautious in acquiring land.
Specifically, from January to July this year, the sales area of newly built commercial housing on the sales side was 450.21 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%; The sales revenue was 4271.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.1%, which narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the period from January to June. The second-hand housing market continues its growth trend, with a nationwide second-hand housing transaction online signing area of 482 million square meters from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%.
In terms of inventory, the unsold area of commercial housing at the end of July was 759.11 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, marking the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year decline. Among them, the area for sale for less than 3 years was 555.59 million square meters, a decrease of 3.6%, and a significant decline from the previous high point.
The supply side continues to contract. From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 4.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%; The newly started construction area of houses has decreased by 24.0%. Real estate development companies have seen a year-on-year decrease of 20.3% in their available funds, indicating ongoing financial pressure on the companies.
In July of this year, the State Council officially approved and issued the "15th Five Year Plan for Expanding Consumption", which unified housing consumption with automobiles and household appliances into the system of bulk durable consumer goods, and ranked housing consumption as the top priority. This statement elevates market stability to a higher strategic dimension.
Since August, the implementation of tailored policies for core cities has continued to deepen. Starting from August 8th, Beijing will shorten the social security period required for non Beijing residents to purchase housing within the Fifth Ring Road from 2 years to 1 year, and significantly increase the amount of housing provident fund loans. Shanghai has optimized the implementation criteria for replacement housing purchases. Non Shanghai residents who sell their homes and replace them according to regulations are exempt from submitting social security or personal income tax certificates. The Zhongzhi Research Institute believes that "stabilizing the real estate market" is an established goal throughout the year, and the policy focus is expected to continue to accelerate the implementation and effectiveness of existing policies.
Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, believes that the next step should be to continue to increase urban renewal efforts, fill the gaps in living conditions and supporting facilities of old housing, and improve the livability and tradability of housing. Smooth the cycle of "selling old and buying new", increase the government and state-owned enterprise platforms' efforts to collect and store affordable, talent, and resettlement housing, and simultaneously support the replacement of homeowners. At the same time, we will promote the sinking of the "good house" standard, and work together to promote the "four good" construction in layout design, new building regulations, and municipal supporting facilities. We will increase support for land transfer and municipal supply, and stimulate demand for improvement through high-quality and effective supply.