In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month on month; The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers increased by 3.5% year-on-year and decreased by 0.7% month on month... The National Bureau of Statistics released the latest price data on the 9th. How do you view the current price situation?
Statistics show that in July, the year-on-year increase in CPI fell by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first time since February this year that it fell below 1%.
The year-on-year increase in CPI has fallen, mainly due to the impact of the decline in gasoline prices. ”Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
Dong Lijuan analyzed that due to international input factors, the increase in gasoline prices in July fell by 16 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the upward impact on CPI decreased by about 0.45 percentage points compared to the previous month, driving the increase in energy prices back to 0.6%.
Xu Guangjian, Vice President of the China Price Association, stated that despite the impact of the decline in gasoline prices, the CPI in July still increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.9% year-on-year. Overall, consumer prices for residents maintained a moderate upward trend.
From a month on month perspective, CPI decreased by 0.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month.
According to Xu Guangjian's analysis, in July, fluctuations in international crude oil prices led to a 10.7% decrease in domestic gasoline prices, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the previous month, and a decrease of approximately 0.35 percentage points in CPI compared to the previous month. In addition, a large number of seasonal fruits and vegetables have been launched, and the market supply is sufficient. The price of fresh fruits has decreased by 3.8%, which has affected a month on month decrease of about 0.07 percentage points in CPI.
Compared with last month, there were positive changes in market prices in some industries in China in July, showing an upward trend compared to the previous month.
Pork prices have rebounded - the comprehensive regulation policy on pig production capacity has shown its effect, coupled with factors such as frequent extreme weather events such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall in some areas, which have pushed up transportation costs. Pork prices have increased by 4.1% from a decrease of 0.8% last month, affecting a month on month increase of about 0.07 percentage points in CPI.
The demand for consumer electronics products is strong - artificial intelligence drives the iterative upgrading of consumer electronics products, resulting in increased demand and price increases for related products. The prices of tablets, computers, and mobile phones have risen by 11.3%, 5.5%, and 1.0% respectively, with a total impact on the CPI month on month increase of about 0.03 percentage points.
Service price increase - With the increasing demand for summer travel, travel agency fees, hotel accommodation, plane tickets, and transportation rental prices have all increased; Policy based price adjustments continue to be promoted in some regions, with medical service prices rising by 1.1%, affecting a month on month increase of approximately 0.07 percentage points in CPI.
The effect of regulating pig production capacity is gradually emerging, and there is upward support for international grain prices. At the same time, the release of new driving forces such as artificial intelligence and the continued implementation of various policies to promote consumption will provide support for the continued moderate rebound of CPI. ”Liu Fang, a researcher at the Market and Price Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
In July, influenced by factors such as input and seasonality, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 0.7% month on month and increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Dong Lijuan stated that the month on month decline in PPI has expanded by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Firstly, international input factors have affected the downward trend in prices of related industries such as petroleum and non-ferrous metals; The second factor is seasonal influence. In July, there were more high temperatures, rainfall, and typhoon weather, which slowed down the construction progress of some industries and led to a decrease in prices. At the same time, hydropower and wind power generation increased, with prices dropping by 10.3% and 3.9% respectively.
At the same time, it should be noted that industrial transformation and upgrading, as well as the expansion of consumer quality, are driving up demand and prices in some industries. New driving forces are growing and expanding, with prices for intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing, carbon new materials, ships and related equipment manufacturing increasing by 2.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% month on month, respectively. Quality related consumption is growing rapidly, with prices for smart home consumer equipment and skincare cosmetics manufacturing increasing by 3.4% and 0.7% month on month, respectively, "said Dong Lijuan.
Liu Fang stated that China's economy has strong resilience and sufficient supply of livelihood goods. Against the backdrop of fully utilizing the effectiveness of various stock and incremental policies and increasing countercyclical adjustment efforts, the potential of domestic demand is expected to be further released. It is expected that the price operation in the second half of the year will continue the positive trend of moderate CPI rise and stable PPI rise.