Currently, the economic "semi annual reports" of all 31 provinces in China have been released, with 15 provinces outperforming the national average in GDP growth rate (4.7%).
Tian Lihui, a finance professor at Nankai University, told reporters that the economic growth rate in the first half of the year showed a pattern of "stable backbone, prominent new quality, and intensified differentiation". Economic provinces such as Zhejiang and Shandong, which rely on high-tech manufacturing and digital economy as engines, have become the "ballast" for stable growth. Regional differentiation reflects the differences in factor endowments and transformation capabilities, revealing that the Chinese economy is moving from a new stage of "speed competition" to "quality competition", laying a differentiated evolution path for high-quality development.
Anhui returns to the top ten in the country
On July 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in the first half of the year, China's GDP was 69570.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% calculated at constant prices.
In terms of economic growth, Xizang's GDP growth reached 6.3%, leading the country; Following closely behind is Zhejiang at 5.7%. In addition, provinces with growth rates of over 5.5% include Shandong, Shanghai, and Anhui.
In terms of total economic output, the top ten seats are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Henan, Hubei, Fujian, Shanghai, and Anhui. The top ten provinces in terms of economy mentioned above account for over 60% of the total national proportion, highlighting their role as the "backbone". Among them, Guangdong and Jiangsu exceeded 7 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, Shandong exceeded 5 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, and Anhui returned to the top ten in the country.
Liu Xiangdong, Chief Analyst of Dongyuan Investment, stated in an interview with reporters that the growth support in various regions presents distinct characteristics of "new momentum driven, industrial ballast, and foreign trade driven". Firstly, high-tech manufacturing and artificial intelligence have become the core engines; Secondly, the continuous empowerment of the digital economy and private economy; Thirdly, the recovery of foreign trade has provided important support, and the contribution of an open economy has significantly increased.
Looking at the development momentum of the top ten provinces in terms of economy, it can be seen that there is a clear trend of "moving towards novelty and excellence" in various regions. Taking Zhejiang, which leads the top ten in terms of economic growth rate, as an example, in the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Zhejiang Province increased by 8% year-on-year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and digital economy core industry manufacturing increased by 16.2% and 15.5% respectively, and the output of semiconductors and service robots doubled.
Looking at Jiangsu again, emerging industries are accelerating their development, and emerging consumption is growing rapidly. In the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size in Jiangsu Province increased by 14.8%, and the added value of digital product manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 13.5%, both of which were significantly faster than all industries above designated size; In June, the retail sales of new energy vehicles, smartphones, and wearable smart devices for units above designated size in Jiangsu increased by 27.9%, 90.9%, and 317.6% year-on-year, respectively.
Looking at Anhui, which has returned to the top ten, in the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the province increased by 12.4% year-on-year, which is 1.4 percentage points faster than the first quarter. Among them, the added value of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 22.7%, and the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 44.6%, which were 10.3 percentage points and 32.2 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size, respectively.
Tian Lihui stated that the current top ten provinces in the economy are reconstructing their industrial logic through technological iteration, such as digital manufacturing in Zhejiang and new energy vehicles in Anhui, all of which exhibit a closed-loop transition from "innovation chain industry chain value chain". This is a paradigm shift from factor driven to efficiency driven, upgrading "comparative advantage" to "competitive advantage" through institutional openness and collaborative innovation. This kind of "moving towards novelty and excellence" not only stabilizes the national economic situation, but also reshapes the "growth pole" connotation of regional economics, providing a paradigm sample for the transformation of momentum for the whole country.
Further efforts will be made to boost domestic demand
On July 23rd, Yang Mu, Director of the Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, introduced at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the first half of the year, final consumer spending drove GDP growth by 2.1 percentage points and remained the primary driving force. The growth trend of service consumption is good, and although the growth rate of commodity consumption is currently relatively slow, the incremental space and growth potential are still relatively large.
Faced with this situation, multiple provinces have emphasized that they will further increase policy efforts to boost domestic demand, especially to promote consumption, in the second half of the year.
For example, Henan has stated that it will continue to implement the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods in the second half of the year. For individual consumers who have scrapped or replaced their cars, a maximum subsidy of 20000 yuan and 15000 yuan will be given proportionally; For the purchase of six types of household appliances within the subsidy scope, including refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan will be provided; Four types of digital smart products, including mobile phones, tablets, smart watches, wristbands, and smart glasses, will receive a maximum subsidy of 500 yuan, expected to benefit over 10 million consumers.
Jiangsu stated that in the next stage, it should continue to track the structural changes in the consumer market, dynamically optimize the coverage and standards of consumer promotion policies, pay more attention to optimizing the consumption environment, cultivating new forms of consumption, increasing residents' income and other long-term mechanisms. While playing a role in short-term policy leverage, it should accelerate the stimulation of endogenous consumption power and provide solid support for consolidating and expanding the stable and positive momentum of the consumer economy.
Hubei Province stated that in the next stage, it will further innovate consumption scenarios, optimize the consumption environment, enhance residents' consumption ability and willingness, focus on the growth points of consumption during holidays such as summer and National Day, and better unleash consumption vitality and potential.
In the second half of the year, various regions will tap into the potential of domestic demand and release consumption resilience through green and intelligent consumption subsidies and digitalization of the service industry, "said Tian Lihui.
When it comes to how various regions should make efforts to drive economic growth in the future, Liu Xiangdong believes that in the second half of the year, various regions should focus on the three main lines of "expanding effective demand, stabilizing industrial growth, and preventing and resolving risks" and implement precise policies. One is to focus on promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize, optimizing the investment structure in the fields of new infrastructure and people's livelihood, while stimulating the vitality of private investment; Secondly, we will deepen the empowerment of the real economy with "artificial intelligence+" and promote the transition of artificial intelligence from technological breakthroughs to large-scale commercial applications. Each region needs to seize the segmented tracks of intelligent agents and embodied intelligence according to local conditions, and transform the initial release into industrial increment; The third is to coordinate development and security, actively and prudently resolve real estate risks and existing debts, implement policies such as the purchase of existing housing and urban renewal, and build a solid safety bottom line for stable growth.