Faced with a more complex and ever-changing external environment, China's GDP growth rate in the first half of 2026 is 4.7%, and the economy is operating within a reasonable range. ”Chen Yanbin, Director of the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated in an interview with reporters that the actual economic growth rate in the first half of the year was basically on par with the potential growth rate, continuing the good trend of narrowing the output gap in the past two years.
Chen Yanbin introduced that China's economic growth rate continues to maintain a high level and good trend among major economies in the world. According to the IMF's July forecast data, the global economic growth rate is expected to be 3.0% in 2026, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from 2025. Among them, the average growth rate of developed economies will decrease from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026, and the average growth rate of emerging economies will decrease from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026.
It is worth noting that the IMF's forecast data for July has lowered the global economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points compared to the forecast data for April, but has raised the forecast for China's economic growth by 0.2 percentage points. The resilience of China's economic development continues to be demonstrated.
Chen Yanbin stated that in the first half of this year, China's macroeconomic performance showed multiple bright spots.
Firstly, the profitability of industrial enterprises has significantly improved. From January to May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 18.8% year-on-year, which is 18.2 percentage points higher than the full year of 2025.
The second is that the price level continues to rise moderately, which is in line with the goal of "reasonable price recovery". On average from January to June, CPI increased by 1.0% compared to the same period in 2025.
The third is to further optimize the investment structure. In the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with investments in aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services increasing by 23.3%, 8.1%, and 15.5% respectively.
The fourth is the rapid growth of exports and further optimization of trade structure. In the first half of the year, the cumulative year-on-year growth of goods trade exports was 13.4%, which is 7.3 percentage points higher than the full year of 2025. Among them, the export of electromechanical products increased by 20.1% year-on-year, accounting for 63.5% of the total export value, an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The export of high-tech products increased by 39% year-on-year.
Chen Xiaoliang, a professor at the School of Economics of the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and editor in chief of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that according to the "three in one" theory of macro policies, the next step is to accurately apply the three major types of policies of stability policy, growth policy, and structural policy, and make precise efforts from both the supply and demand sides.
Specifically, we need to promote the coordinated efforts of stability policies, growth policies, and structural policies to achieve dynamic balance between supply and demand at a higher level. Stable policies should anchor aggregate demand, stabilize short-term fluctuations through countercyclical adjustments, and focus on expanding domestic demand. Growth policies should anchor total supply and provide sustained momentum for long-term growth by improving total factor productivity. Structural policies should anchor macroeconomic structures, optimize various macroeconomic structures, and promote dynamic equilibrium between total supply and total demand at a higher level.
In order to ensure that the three major types of policies can truly form a synergy, it is necessary to coordinate deep level reforms. Reforms in statistical systems and local government incentive mechanisms are particularly crucial. By actively shifting the focus of assessment towards' consumption and livelihood ', we can promote stable policies to focus on boosting total demand, and promote growth policies and structural policies to focus on effective supply that matches residents' demand, achieving dynamic balance between supply and demand at a higher level, "said Chen Xiaoliang.
Chen Yanbin also proposed to promote the formation of a positive cycle in which economic growth and expected improvement mutually reinforce each other. He believes that the improvement of economic performance can enhance the confidence of business entities, and good expectation management can further consolidate the positive trend of the economy. The two mutually promote and strengthen each other, promoting the formation of a positive cycle between economic growth and expected improvement. (Outlook New Era)
Recommended Reading Change it
