Prior to the live military exercise, the relevant unit repeatedly “refined and tempered” the combat scenario plan, flexibly setting the tactical context and seamlessly incorporating various special situations. This was aimed at comprehensively testing the capabilities of the troops in an environment that closely resembled actual combat, thereby establishing a clear directive for genuine preparation and rigorous training.

President Xi emphasized, “We must adhere to the principle that soldiers train according to the methods required for warfare, practice diligently whatever skills are needed for combat, address the specific issues that arise, and comprehensively enhance the level of military training in terms of its practical application.” A scenario plan is a written document that outlines the intentions, situations, and developments of both sides in a hypothetical exercise based on a training topic. To some extent, what the scenario plan dictates determines what the exercise will involve, and the type of challenges the troops will face. The situation in warfare is unpredictable, just like the shape of water. Victory cannot be guaranteed; understanding change is crucial. Focusing on tomorrow allows us to secure today. The biggest threat to military training and preparedness is rigid thinking, outdated concepts, and narrow perspectives. Incorporating more “unpredictable elements” into scenario plans during peacetime can increase our chances of success when we actually enter the battlefield.

However, a few units aim to simplify and standardize their operations, but there is still a significant gap compared to actual combat training. Some are overly optimistic, assuming that situations that are difficult to handle do not exist and that enemies they cannot defeat do not exist; others remain stagnant, practicing the same drills in the same location year after year and using the same plan for several years; and some have only a superficial understanding, unable to grasp the latest tactics employed by their adversaries or develop effective strategies to defeat them. “Warfare is a realm of deception.” What remains constant on the battlefield is “change.” If an exercise is free from unexpected events and the confrontation lacks suspense, it is certain that new tactics will not be developed, skills will not be strengthened, and heavy losses will be incurred when faced with the real battlefield.

Chen Geng, a prominent general during the founding of the country, once stated that tactics and combat training must reject idealized scenarios or scenarios derived from museums. Combat is a matter of direct confrontation, and training must be practical. If the imagined scenarios are merely unrealistic fantasies and ill-defined fantasies, officers and soldiers will inevitably be at a loss when engaging in actual combat. Times are changing, and warfare is evolving. If one seeks to identify enemies solely from past wars and adopts battle tactics from past victories, it would be akin to committing the mistake of seeking a sword while the boat is moving. Only by making the conditions difficult, setting up hazardous environments, and adequately preparing for challenges can one effectively hone the emergency response and combat capabilities of officers and soldiers.

To know oneself and one’s opponent is the key to victory in any battle. “The ingenious strategies employed were all the result of familiarity with our adversaries.” The Four-Part Crossing of the Chishui River for Mao Zedong, the ambush at Qigen Village for Liu Bocheng, the Huaihai Campaign for Su Yu, and the Battle of Songguofeng for Peng Dehuai… Each of these classic examples in our military history has one common trait: “knowing who the enemy is, where the enemy is, and how to engage with them.”

In the future battlefield, we will face multi-domain warfare, involving aerial force strikes, electromagnetic disruption in the frequency domain, and information fog in the cognitive domain. The type of warfare we will engage in in the future will dictate the type of innovative tactics, training methods, and strategies we need to adopt. In particular, scenario planning exercises must address specific and precise questions about when, where, and under what circumstances to employ which forces, methods, and how to achieve effective coordination. We must enhance routine simulations, practical testing, and dynamic updates, striving to position our warfare planning ahead of the onset of actual combat and firmly securing the initiative on the battlefield. (Looking into the New Era)