On July 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for residents decreased by 0.3% month on month and increased by 1.0% year-on-year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, continuing to maintain a moderate upward trend.
Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that the 0.3% decrease in CPI compared to the previous period was mainly due to seasonal factors and fluctuations in international market prices. Specifically, food prices decreased by 0.4%, and a large number of seasonal fruits and vegetables were launched, resulting in sufficient market supply. Fresh vegetable and fruit prices decreased by 1.0% and 2.0% respectively; Affected by fluctuations in international market prices, domestic gold jewelry and gasoline prices have decreased by 8.7% and 4.9% respectively, with the decline expanding by 5.9 and 4.6 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month.
On a year-on-year basis, the CPI increase in June fell by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. International input factors and other factors have led to a decline in the price increase of domestic industrial consumer goods, with industrial consumer goods prices rising by 2.9%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, affecting the year-on-year increase of CPI by about 0.90 percentage points, and reducing the upward impact on CPI by about 0.28 percentage points compared to the previous month. ”Dong Lijuan analyzed that.
Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, stated that since the beginning of this year, the price operation has emerged from the bottom range and entered a new stage of moderate inflation, initially achieving the goal of "promoting the overall price level from negative to positive" in the government work report. This presents a good pattern of sustained recovery of upstream industrial product prices, moderate rise of downstream consumer product prices, and steady upward trend of the overall price center. Under the influence of multiple intertwined factors, the overall price trend is expected to improve and show a trend of initially high and then stable. In addition, the core CPI is also expected to recover slightly.
Specifically, Wen Bin expects that the policy of expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year is expected to be intensified, and holidays such as summer and National Day will also drive up the prices of tourism, accommodation, catering and other service consumption.
In June, influenced by factors such as the decline in international crude oil prices, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 0.3% month on month and increased by 4.1% year-on-year.
Although PPI has decreased month on month, the acceleration of industrial upgrading has driven an increase in demand in some industries, resulting in price increases. ”Dong Lijuan stated that the coverage of artificial intelligence continues to expand, new raw materials and materials are widely used, and green transformation continues to advance, driving up the manufacturing prices of virtual reality devices by 8.4% month on month, wearable intelligent devices by 3.4%, industrial control computers and systems by 3.3%, and industrial robots by 0.5%; The manufacturing price of electronic specialized materials has increased by 2.5%, the price of carbon based nanomaterials has increased by 1.9%, and the price of biomass fuel processing has increased by 1.2%; The price of comprehensive utilization of abandoned resources has increased by 0.4%.
In Wen Bin's view, although there is a time lag in the transmission of PPI rebound to CPI, the boosting effect of equipment updates and trade in policies on durable consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles in the second half of the year is expected to gradually emerge.
Feng Lin, Executive Director of the Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that in the latest announcement of the 2026 Q2 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the central bank emphasized the need to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, further strengthen the domestic circulation, make good use of various structural monetary policy tools, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises. Based on this, it is expected that macroeconomic policies will further strengthen in promoting consumption and expanding investment in the second half of the year. (Looking into the New Era)