2026-07-06
Starting from 24:00 on July 3rd, gasoline and diesel prices in my country were reduced by 950 yuan and 915 yuan per ton, respectively. On average, the price of 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-grade diesel decreased by 0.75 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.78 yuan per liter, respectively.
This round of refined oil price reductions comes against the backdrop of declining international oil prices since June 18th. On June 24th local time, the global benchmark oil price, Brent crude, had fallen below the $76 per barrel mark, meaning it had returned to pre-war levels. By the close of trading on July 1st, the price of Brent crude futures for September delivery in London had fallen again, closing at $71.57 per barrel. This brought relief to many countries.
International media have been closely monitoring the impact of international oil prices on the world economy, with many commentaries expressing concern about the high oil prices. However, in mid-June, some international media reports explicitly pointed out that China's efforts had supported the world economy. Take two influential newspapers as examples: The Wall Street Journal claimed that "China is supporting the world economy by importing less oil." Le Figaro claimed that "China has saved the world economy for the second time." The article uses the word "second time," while the first time it referred to saving the world economy was during the 2008 global financial crisis, when China's economic development supported the world economy. We extracted some keywords from the two articles: "lower," "maintain," "support," and "buffer." Why do foreign media say this? What answer has China given the world in the face of an energy crisis?
International oil prices experienced a "roller coaster" ride.
The energy crisis affected many countries. In the first half of this year, affected by the US-Israel-Iran war in Iraq, international oil prices experienced a "roller coaster" ride, and many countries experienced shortages of oil reserves.
At the beginning of 2026, the international crude oil market was still fluctuating at low levels. At that time, New York oil prices fluctuated between $57 and $67 per barrel, while Brent oil prices fluctuated between $60 and $73 per barrel. Following the outbreak of hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran on February 28, market concerns about disruptions to crude oil supplies surged. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stalled, oil prices rose further, with both major oil prices approaching $120 per barrel on March 9. Prices remained high until May, with US crude fluctuating between $83 and $108 per barrel for an extended period, and Brent crude oscillating between $90 and $115 per barrel.
The energy crisis impacted many countries globally. After the outbreak of hostilities, Japan's oil imports suffered a major setback. Starting March 16, the Japanese government released approximately 80 million barrels of oil reserves, equivalent to 45 days of Japan's oil needs—the largest release since the establishment of Japan's national oil reserve system in 1978. In early May, Japan initiated a second round of oil reserve releases, releasing enough reserves for 20 days of demand. Even so, the oil shortage continued to affect many industries in Japan.
At this Ito-Yokado supermarket in Tokyo, a major Japanese retailer, pastries, which used to be displayed in plastic boxes for customers to choose from, are now being sold in plastic bags because the price of plastic boxes has increased by 20%. In the meat section, the trays used for meat have been changed from colored to colorless or white to reduce ink usage.
Hitoshi Doi, a manager at Ito-Yokado, said, "We will try our best to reduce costs ourselves and postpone passing on the price increase to consumers. Let's see what we can do right now."
The naphtha shortage has plunged Japan into a "naphtha crisis," leading to shortages of building materials and daily necessities that require naphtha.
African countries are also affected by energy shortages. For example, on March 31, local time, the Zambian government declared a state of emergency regarding fuel supplies.
Zambian energy expert Chikwanda said, "We are facing a huge energy security risk, which not only affects Zambia but also about 75% of other African countries." Oil prices in Zambia are bound to rise like in other countries, and in addition to rising oil prices, the fuel supply problem is also a major concern.
Rising international oil prices have also impacted the operations of domestic US businesses. A low-cost carrier in the US announced it was ceasing operations, becoming the first "casualty" of the US aviation industry.
A US media reporter stated that the near doubling of fuel prices led to the collapse of Spirit Airlines, one of the most devastating commercial losses to date caused by the conflict with Iran.
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol stated in March that due to the conflict in the Middle East...Suddenly, the global energy crisis we face is more severe than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined.
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol stated: "Many of us remember the two oil crises of the 1970s, 1973 and 1979. In each of those crises, the world lost about 5 million barrels of oil per day, totaling 10 million barrels per day. But now we are losing 11 million barrels per day, more than the two oil crises combined."
Why do foreign media claim that "China has saved the world economy for the second time"?
Foreign media have commented that "China is supporting the world economy by importing less oil" (The Wall Street Journal) and "China has saved the world economy" (Le Figaro). How should we understand these assessments? Why do foreign media say that in this series of crises triggered by high oil prices due to war, China has saved the world economy?
Wan Zhe, professor of economics at Beijing Normal University, explains: The core logic of this assessment is that China, as the world's largest crude oil importer, proactively adjusted its strategic demand to prevent the chain reaction of runaway oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts, thus avoiding a stagflation crisis triggered by high inflation in the global economy. This second rescue has historical precedent. The first refers to the period after the 2008 international financial crisis, when China expanded domestic demand to support global aggregate demand and pull the world economy out of recession. This time, in the context of an energy supply shock crisis, China stabilized commodity prices from the demand side. Both times, China addressed two typical global economic risks: "demand collapse" and "supply disruption."
We know that after the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, the market panicked, expecting oil prices to continue to break through. China did not join the global oil rush; instead, it proactively reduced short-term purchases, directly eliminating the largest panic buying in the global oil market, suppressing the price spiral of further oil hoarding, and pushing oil prices down, thus removing the core driving force behind global oil price increases. Therefore, its deeper value lies in safeguarding the bottom line of global inflation, providing a rare period of calm for the then "feverish" crude oil market, buying valuable space and time to curb global inflation, and avoiding a new round of global economic downturn. Thus, it was regarded by foreign media as a key supporting force during the crisis.
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global oil transportation.
Oil prices are largely driven by market expectations. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products daily, accounting for about one-fifth of global oil transportation. If this channel were closed, a buying frenzy would almost be inevitable. Why didn't China engage in a buying spree? Analysis by the US business organization Asia Group points out that the more fundamental support comes from changes in China's energy system itself. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked, China, with its clean energy and policy tools, would be relatively limited in its impact.
From 2024 onwards, China's oil consumption in the transportation sector will decline.
China was once the strongest engine of global oil demand growth. According to the "Statistical Review of World Energy," from 2005 to 2024, China's oil consumption more than doubled, accounting for more than half of the global increase in oil demand during those years.
However, this trend changed in 2024. The impact of the Iraq War further amplified this shift. China's crude oil imports in May fell by approximately 30% compared to the same period last year. In 2024, oil consumption in China's transportation sector declined. Also in that year, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles replaced approximately 430,000 barrels of gasoline daily. This change did not occur suddenly. Since becoming a net oil importer in 1993, China's dependence on foreign oil once exceeded 70%. Therefore, the strategic judgment became that China could not rely on others for its energy lifeline.
In May 2014, during an inspection of automobile companies, General Secretary Xi Jinping stated that "developing new energy vehicles is the only way for my country to move from a large automobile country to a strong automobile country." That same year, the new energy security strategy of "four revolutions and one cooperation" was proposed, guiding my country's high-quality energy development by "promoting energy consumption revolution, energy supply revolution, energy technology revolution, energy system revolution, and comprehensively strengthening international cooperation." In the following decade, the annual production of new energy vehicles increased from 78,500 to over 16 million, more than two hundred times the original amount. Today, new energy vehicles on Chinese roads have replaced a large amount of fossil fuel consumption in daily commutes.
How does China plan its energy resources to cope with external uncertainties?
When the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, China did not rush to buy oil, thanks to changes in its energy system. What measures has my country taken in recent years to address external uncertainties in its energy planning?
Wan Zhe, Professor of Economics at Beijing Normal University: We have built a multi-tiered oil reserve buffer system, forming a system that coordinates national strategic reserves with commercial reserves. The scale far exceeds the International Energy Agency's 90-day import safety standard. At the beginning of this year, the total exceeded 1.3 billion barrels, enough to meet the country's consumption for 140 to 180 days. This is the core ballast stone for coping with short-term geopolitical shocks. Moreover, the sources and channels of imports are becoming increasingly diversified, and we are also strengthening our capacity to guarantee fossil fuel reserves, adhering to coal's fundamental energy position, building the world's largest clean coal power system, and continuously increasing domestic oil and gas exploration and development efforts. We retain production capacity for extreme scenarios such as coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas, firmly safeguarding the bottom line of energy self-sufficiency. In terms of non-fossil fuels, such as wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity, we firmly rank first in the world.
In the transportation and industrial sectors, the substitution of oil and gas with electricity is being promoted, which continuously reduces dependence on imported oil and gas from the demand side. Furthermore, we have built a highly resilient new power system. This capability stems from a long-term, multi-layered insurance system designed to cope with external uncertainties.
Cooperation with China is accelerating energy transition in several Gulf countries.
Currently, many major oil-producing nations are incorporating energy transition into their national strategies. For example, the UAE plans to achieve 19.8 gigawatts of clean energy capacity by 2030, and by 2050, clean energy will account for 50% of total energy consumption. Saudi Arabia is striving to achieve a 50/50 energy mix of natural gas and renewable energy within four years. Oman aims for net-zero emissions by 2050. In recent years, sustainable energy cooperation has been a highlight of cooperation between China and Gulf countries.
The Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai, UAE, is one of the world's largest solar parks and a key project where Chinese companies are helping Dubai achieve its carbon reduction targets. It is reported that once fully completed, the project will significantly increase the proportion of clean energy used in Dubai.
Ali Hayat, Senior Engineer at the Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai, UAE: Once completed in 2030, the project will have an installed capacity exceeding 8,000 megawatts, reducing carbon emissions by 8.5 million tons annually and increasing Dubai's clean energy share to 36%.
In recent years, an increasing number of Chinese energy companies have gradually transformed from suppliers to partners. They have established factories or regional headquarters in the Gulf region, deeply participating in the local energy transition.
Carmela, Director General of the International Renewable Energy Agency: China maintains a leading position in two aspects: reducing the cost of solar panels through technological development and continuously increasing the proportion of renewable energy.
What answers has China given the world during an energy crisis?
What has the world learned from China's energy planning and layout during an energy crisis? What new energy plans and layouts does China currently have that can significantly change the global energy landscape in the future?
Wan Zhe, Professor of Economics at Beijing Normal University: In the past, energy security thinking was a zero-sum game, focusing on controlling resources. China, however, does not control resources but rather uses technological innovation to break free from resource dependence. Therefore, energy security requires proactive planning and long-term investment; emergency measures are insufficient to address systemic geopolitical crises.
Chinese experience proves that strategic planning and long-term development are the core foundation for coping with risks. Self-sufficiency across the entire industry chain is the underlying support for energy transition. China has mastered the core technologies and production capacity of the entire photovoltaic, wind power, and energy storage industry chain, avoiding the impact of external technology blockades and global supply chain fluctuations. This also provides a reference for many developing countries to achieve a low-cost, self-sufficient path.
The 15th Five-Year Plan proposed that non-fossil energy should account for about 50% of electricity generation by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Large-scale application in China will continuously reduce the equipment cost of new energy sources, accelerate the global popularization of renewable energy, and promote the transformation of the global energy system from oil and gas-dominated to electricity-dominated. The future global energy landscape will be determined by whoever has the technology and sets the standards. China's leading position in ultra-high voltage power transmission, new energy storage, and smart grids...It is providing a technological framework for global power interconnection. With the expansion of new energy systems, the core of global energy trade will shift from resource endowment to technology and manufacturing capabilities. Therefore, China is transforming into a proactive stabilizing force in global energy governance, making everyone realize that structural transformation is necessary to seek energy security. (Outlook New Era)
Special statement: if the pictures and texts reproduced or quoted on this site infringe your legitimate rights and interests, please contact this site, and this site will correct and delete them in time. For copyright issues and website cooperation, please contact through outlook new era email:lwxsd@liaowanghn.com
Recommended Reading Change it
Submission mailbox:lwxsd@liaowanghn.com Tel:020-817896455
粤ICP备19140089号-4 Copyright © 2019 by www.outlooknewera.com.cn all rights reserved
>