The World Gold Council, headquartered in London, released its "Mid Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market" report on the 1st, stating that despite experiencing a price correction in the first half of this year, gold remains one of the best performing assets in the past 12 months. In the second half of this year, the trend of gold prices will tend to stabilize, continuing to serve as a barometer of the global macro economy.
According to the report, in January of this year, gold prices hit historical peaks 12 times, with London Bullion Market Association gold prices reaching a historical high of $5405 per ounce at one point; In June, gold prices fell sharply to a low of $4002 per ounce. As of now, the gold price has fallen by 7% compared to the beginning of the year.
The report suggests that the driving factors for gold prices in the first half of the year include an increase in geopolitical risks, with the impact of the Middle East conflict being particularly significant. In addition, investors' actions such as adjusting positions and taking profits also have a significant impact on gold prices.
The report points out that from the current price point of view, the trend of gold prices is basically in line with market consensus: the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once in 2026; The Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank will all tighten monetary policy; The inflation rate in the United States is expected to peak in the second quarter. If there is no significant change in the above expectations, the gold price may fluctuate around $4100 per ounce within the year, with a fluctuation range of about ± 5%.
The report suggests that if the geopolitical or economic situation deteriorates, or if interest rate expectations change, gold is expected to regain its upward trend. However, only signals of a global economic slowdown are strong enough to push gold prices beyond their current range. The strengthening of the US dollar, higher than expected interest rate hikes by major economies, and a rebound in market risk appetite are the main obstacles facing gold prices. Based on historical performance, if the gold price drops by 10% to 15% from its current level, it may trigger long-term investors in multiple regions to buy on dips, and the space for further decline may be limited.