OPEC: The Road to Governance Transformation under Global Changes

2026-05-22

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), abbreviated as "OPEC" in Chinese, was established in 1960 with the core mission of regulating the international oil market for a long time. With the United Arab Emirates officially withdrawing from OPEC in May 2026, the organization currently has 11 member countries including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran, all of which are major net crude oil exporters in the global South. Since the 21st century, facing profound changes in the global energy landscape and climate governance agenda, this institution has continuously adjusted its strategic positioning and operational mechanism, gradually shifting from a small-scale producer alliance that coordinates production and stabilizes oil prices to a multilateral cooperation platform that actively responds to global market changes and participates in climate governance processes. The driving force of the era of transformation is firstly that for OPEC, an energy related international organization, its governance transformation stems from the structural changes in the international oil supply system. Driven by the shale technology revolution, the United States has seen a significant increase in crude oil production since 2011, becoming the world's largest oil producing country in 2018 and a net exporter of oil in 2020. As of 2025, the United States has maintained its position as the world's largest crude oil producer for eight consecutive years, accounting for approximately 16% of the global total production, and its export volume also accounts for 10% of the global crude oil trade volume. Moreover, shale oil production is flexible and can quickly respond to short-term market changes, directly competing with OPEC's pricing power. Meanwhile, emerging oil producing countries continue to emerge in regions such as South America, West Africa, and Southern Africa, driving the overall capacity expansion of non OPEC oil producing countries. These changes have led to continuous pressure on OPEC's market share in the global market, and the existing "production limit and price stability" mechanism is less effective than before. Secondly, the global climate governance process and energy transition trends pose significant strategic pressure on OPEC. The control and substitution of oil consumption, as a high carbon emission energy source, has always been a core issue in climate governance. From the 1990s to the beginning of this century, OPEC member countries have long been a strong force in resisting climate governance in order to maintain their interests in resource exports, and have collectively adopted obstruction or delay strategies to hinder the achievement of multiple international climate agreements. However, with the gradual deepening of global climate governance in the past decade, OPEC is no longer able to maintain its previous posture, and all its member countries have signed the Paris Agreement. At the same time, the global energy structure is accelerating its transition towards cleanliness. Although global medium - and long-term oil demand will continue to exist, the slowing growth momentum is an undeniable fact. Multiple international energy agencies predict that global oil demand will peak by 2030. The economies of OPEC member countries are highly dependent on oil revenue, and the energy transition will directly shake the existing development model. In this context, OPEC cannot only act as an "internal" regulator of the oil market, but also needs to participate in the dialogue and rule making of the global green wave to safeguard the long-term interests of its member countries. Finally, the core member countries of OPEC, represented by Saudi Arabia, have the strategic ambition of becoming a medium-sized power. On the one hand, the United States' dependence on Middle Eastern oil has significantly weakened, and its Eastern strategy is showing a contraction trend; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered the restructuring of the global energy supply chain, and Europe accelerated the "de Russification" of energy, which in a disguised way enhanced the energy strength of the Gulf oil and gas countries. Under this dual transformation, OPEC has surpassed its simple economic interest community attribute and has become an important political lever for countries such as Saudi Arabia to maintain global strategic influence and manage alliance relationships. In response to the challenges of achieving strategic expansion and market regulation through "OPEC+", OPEC has embarked on the most significant institutional reform in history since 2016- building the "OPEC+" mechanism. To ensure the operation of this mechanism, OPEC has introduced a series of supporting reform measures. One is to upgrade the semi annual ministerial meeting of member countries to the "OPEC and Non OPEC Ministerial Meeting", ensuring that the senior officials of the energy departments of participating countries in the new mechanism can deeply participate. The second is to establish a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) mechanism, with the assistance of the OPEC Secretariat, to closely review global oil market dynamics, oil production levels, and the compliance of all participating countries, and to propose production quota recommendations. This reform demonstrates OPEC's courage and wisdom in breaking through international organizational conventions and transcending member state boundaries, achieving production synergy among oil producing countries through result oriented thinking and inclusive cooperation. Its essence is a strategic power transfer, where Saudi Arabia, as the former leader of OPEC, has incorporated key oil producing countries such as Russia into the already mature cooperation system by sharing some decision-making power. As the most significant non OPEC oil producing country, Russia has been working with Saudi Arabia to shape mechanisms and control production since its alliance, providing key support for the effective operation of OPEC+. Overall, OPEC+has basically achieved the expected goals of participating countries. All parties have established relatively effective internal coordination and compliance mechanisms, and the production quotas of participating countries are formulated through consultation and consensus. Although this arrangement is not legally binding, countries generally comply with quota arrangements and demonstrate high compliance. OPEC+also has a compensation mechanism that allows participating countries that fail to fully fulfill their production reduction obligations to make up for the reduction in subsequent months, thereby maintaining the comfort of participating countries. More importantly, OPEC+has effectively reduced the volatility of the global crude oil market. OPEC stated in its official website article for 2025 that under its efforts, oil has become the "least volatile category" in the global commodity market, providing much-needed confidence and predictability for investors and other energy stakeholders. The role of OPEC, as a "agenda setter" pursuing climate governance, has undergone a profound adjustment from passive defense to active participation in the face of climate governance pressure. Its governance focus includes the following three aspects: firstly, establishing a dedicated climate governance mechanism internally. The OPEC Secretariat has established an "Environmental Affairs Group" to provide member countries with research reports and policy recommendations related to climate governance. OPEC also regularly holds climate change technology seminars and climate change coordination meetings. Secondly, construct and disseminate a climate governance narrative that reflects a balanced stance. By browsing OPEC's climate governance documents and official statements, it can be found that the organization recognizes the necessity and urgency of addressing climate change, supports active global mitigation and adaptation actions, and also emphasizes that "the world needs to meet long-term needs with various forms of energy", advocates "achieving energy transformation in a fully energy, fully technological, and all human way, and energy security, energy affordability, and emission reduction need to go hand in hand", and opposes restricting oil production and consumption regardless of the specific realities of each country. It has become common for the Secretary General of OPEC to lead a delegation to attend the COP conference in order to spread this narrative; Starting from 2022, the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, and Brazil will be hosted by "OPEC+" countries. OPEC actively speaks out on this platform, emphasizing that "oil producing countries must be part of the solution"; The organization has also established dialogue mechanisms related to climate governance with organizations such as the International Energy Agency, the European Union, and the Forum of Natural Gas Exporting Countries. Thirdly, promote specific technological solutions. Based on the successful experience of Saudi Arabia in building a "green oil and gas production system", OPEC systematically promotes low-carbon technologies such as carbon capture, utilization and storage, associated gas recovery and utilization, and green power in oil fields through international exhibitions, technical reports, and capacity building channels, providing feasible paths for the industry to reduce carbon intensity and control methane emissions, and promoting the clean development of fossil fuels. The transformation path of OPEC is far from complete, and its future prospects are unfolding in the tension of opportunities and challenges. Whether OPEC can find a sustainable balance between ensuring the stability of the global oil market, safeguarding the fundamental interests of its member countries, and promoting its own and global low-carbon transformation will ultimately determine its position and value in the new world energy order. Its transformation process provides a valuable research model for understanding the survival of resource-based international organizations in the changing times. (Outlook on the New Era) Author: Zhang Rui (Researcher of Global Energy Internet Economics and Technology Research Institute)

Edit:Luoyu    Responsible editor:Zhoushu

Source:cssn.cn

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