Stable growth in financial aggregate and sustained effectiveness of monetary policy
2026-05-18
The financial data released by the People's Bank of China on May 14th showed that the growth rate of financial indicators such as social financing scale and broad money (M2) in April was still significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate during the same period. At the same time, the credit structure continues to optimize, with increased credit allocation in key areas and sustained growth momentum, creating a suitable monetary and financial environment for the sustained improvement and optimization of the economy. According to data that fully meets effective financing needs, as of the end of April, the stock of social financing scale increased by 7.8% year-on-year, and M2 increased by 8.6% year-on-year, continuing to maintain reasonable growth. Experts say that the year-on-year growth rate of social integration and M2 continues to be higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, reflecting that the current social financing conditions are in a relaxed state, and the effective financing needs of the real economy are fully met. The abundant liquidity in the banking system, stable market interest rates, and a series of effective measures have provided good support for the growth of financial aggregate. Specifically, on the one hand, this year the central bank continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the liquidity of the banking system remains abundant, providing a favorable liquidity environment for corporate financing and government bond issuance. On the other hand, from January to April, the average overnight interest rate (DR001) in the money market was 1.3%, running steadily around the central bank policy rate of 1.4%. In addition, with the implementation of a series of structural monetary policy measures at the beginning of the year, the financial system's support for key areas of the real economy has further increased, and it has also played a strong supporting role in the growth of financial aggregate. It is worth mentioning that the decrease in the proportion of RMB loans in the incremental data of social financing scale is not due to the weakening of financial support. Experts say that based on data from 2025, the proportion of RMB loans in the incremental scale of social financing has decreased to 44.7%, while the proportion of bond financing has increased to 45.6%. The importance of loan investment in creating deposit currency has decreased, resulting in a significantly lower loan growth rate than deposit growth rate. This is a normal phenomenon and not a reflection of liquidity accumulation or idle funds. Loan growth slows down or becomes normal. In terms of credit, data shows that as of the end of April, the balance of RMB loans was 280.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, which has slowed down compared to the previous month; In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. Under the trend of high-quality development, the economic and financing structures are undergoing profound transformation, and loan growth is slowing down or becoming the norm. ”Experts say that China's loan growth may have bid farewell to the path of "high growth and expansion" in earlier years. This is not due to weak economic growth or weak financial support, but rather a vivid manifestation of high-quality economic development and increasingly diverse financial systems in the single financing channel of loans. From the perspective of residents' departments, in the first four months, household loans decreased by 490.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 610.2 billion yuan and medium - and long-term loans increased by 119.9 billion yuan. Experts suggest that the slowdown in personal loan growth rate and the steady decrease in residents' leverage ratio are natural processes for residents to independently reduce their debt burden and improve their balance sheets. In recent years, the deep adjustment of the real estate market has to some extent affected residents' willingness to expand their credit, and many households have gradually shifted from "adding leverage" to "deleveraging", resulting in a significant reduction in debt burden. Proactively repairing the balance sheet of residents is conducive to laying a solid foundation for the sustained stabilization and recovery of the economy. With the decrease in debt pressure and interest payments, the disposable income of residents will rebound. ”The above experts stated that this can promote the improvement of residents' consumption ability and willingness, which is conducive to better playing the role of consumption as the main engine and stabilizer of economic growth, and helping to smooth the economic cycle. In addition, the credit structure continues to optimize, and the growth momentum in key areas is accelerating. Data shows that as of the end of April, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 37.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. The balance of medium and long-term loans in the service industry, excluding the real estate industry, was 61.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. The growth rates of these loans were higher than those of various loans during the same period. Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has continued to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to further unleash policy effectiveness. Experts say that on the basis of the continued effectiveness of existing policies, the People's Bank of China launched a series of structural monetary policy measures at the beginning of the year, creating a suitable monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth, high-quality development, and smooth operation of financial markets. From the perspective of comprehensive social financing costs, the weighted average interest rate for new loans (in domestic and foreign currencies) issued by enterprises in April was about 3.1%, which was about 20 basis points lower than the same period last year; The weighted average interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans (in domestic and foreign currencies) is about 3.1%, which is about 6 basis points lower than the same period last year. Meanwhile, the financial market is operating smoothly. Since the beginning of this year, the central and trading activity of major stock indices have increased compared to the previous year, bond yields have remained relatively stable, and the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate has increased, with overall two-way fluctuations and appreciation. Experts say that in the complex and ever-changing external environment, China's financial market has shown a good trend of steady progress, providing strong support for the high-quality development of the real economy and reflecting the strong resilience and development vitality of China's financial market. Looking ahead, the favorable conditions for consolidating the stable and positive trend of the economy in China are still sufficient. The above experts stated that from the perspective of policy environment, macro policies are more proactive and effective, and policy effectiveness is further released. In the future, more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies will continue to be effective, providing strong support for economic operation. (Looking into the New Era)
Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue
Source:China Securities Journal
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